Friday, March 13, 2009

How Risky Is Flying?

Ok, as some of you may know, I’m what airlines consider a “serious” frequent travel, sometimes I complain that I don’t have the miles or the status that some people I know have, but if I compare myself with the statistics, I do fly a lot. Now, when we think about flying and the risks involved on it, the first thing we think is all the accidents and fatalities we’ve seen on TV in the last year, 2 years, then, the following, statistics comes to our head:
risk-airfatalities-l


We all know that the probabilities to die in an airplane accident are minimum, some people have said that it is more likely to die of a Thunder strike than an air accident.

One day a question came to my mind, if we know that the chances to die are so low, why MOST people (including me) are more afraid to flight than taking the road / train? As soon as we hit the smallest turbulence, ALL the people react in one way or another (except the flight attendants). So, what’s the difference between hitting some turbulence and experience a bumpy bus ride in the middle of the rain? why are we less afraid in the second scenario ?

Well, according to David Ropeik  (Instructor in Risk Communication at the Harvard School of Public Health), the fact that we are NOT in control of the aircraft and that 99.99% of the population is clueless on how to operate a plane, we feel way more insecure that driving, which is actually more dangerous.

Another interesting factor is:
what denominator are we using when calculating the risk of flying? Here are some options:

  1. Dividing the number of people who die into the total number of people, which gives you the risk for the average person?
  2. Dividing the number of victims into the number of total flights all passengers took, which gives the risk per flight?
  3. Dividing the number of victims into the total number of miles all of them flew, which gives you the risk per mile?
In case you don’t know, 2007 and 2008 reported ZERO (as of 0) deaths caused by Airplanes accidents in the US, do you want to see the number of casualties by bus or car? I don’t think so…
Going back to Mr Ropeik’s argument, and I quote:
“These 3 options produce accurate numbers, but which one is most relevant to you depends on your personal flying patterns. Some fliers take lots of short flights and some take longer ones, for example. Since the overwhelming majority of the few plane crashes that do occur take place in connection with takeoffs and landings, the risk is less a matter of how far you fly and more a matter of how often. If you're a frequent flier, then the risk per flight means more. For occasional long-distance fliers, the risk per mile means more. A frequent, long-distance flier would want to consider both.
Here's another number problem with the risk of flying: do you calculate the risk on the basis of one year, or an average of five years, or 10, or 20? Most years no plane crashes occur, or at least very few. So the number of victims per year goes up radically in years when there are crashes. Just look at the spikes in the number of deaths from plane crashes by year in the graph at right.
Risk perception is not just a matter of the facts
Another "feelings factor" that informs our perception of risk is awareness. The more aware of a risk we are, the more concerned about it we are. Which explains why, when there is a plane crash in the news, flying seems scarier to many of us, even though that one crash hasn't changed the overall statistical risk much.
I haven’t figured out yet what is my exact risk factor, what I can tell is that I drove the other day to Edmonton and I found myself in the middle of a snow blizzard… Not funny, so, while I live in Canada, Air Canada will be my best and loyal friend…
If you want to read Mr Ropeik’s article, go here:  http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/planecrash/risky.html
If you want to read the List of accidents and incidents involving commercial aircraft, go here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incidents_on_commercial_aircraft
Safe flights!!!

Travel blog vs Facebook vs New Blog!

Ok, question of the day, What the heck happened to my blog?

Fact #1: I think the number of readers of this blog went down from few hundreds per month to maybe one per quarter, me.
Fact #2: And you know? it is all my fault,  when I started this blog I had the idea of sharing my experiences related to my constant travels and adventures as a consultant with friends and family. Everything was going fine, I used to post on a frequent basis, (not like lychees, but enough to consider myself a blogger) and I loved it until Facebook became part of my daily life.

Fact #3: Facebook

But, Why Facebook? Why some people claim that Facebook as the worst thing in the world? Well, I’m not there yet for sure, I certainly love the thing, but what happened is that at the beginning Facebook was the novelty for me & my friends, I gave it 2 months of my attention before “something else” showed up, but almost 2 years after the day that Rafa forced me to join and left my blog floating in the internet, I decided that it was time for me to go back into the blogger world, so here I am.

Most of you have been tracking the changes in my life through Facebook, but for those of you that have no idea where I am, I live in Canada now, the land of the Maple and the noble Beaver, the second biggest land on earth and the 130th less populated, Calgary to be more exact.

So, why am I writing again if I surrender to the power of the Facebook status, well, I’ve been thinking about the hundreds of things I want to share based on what i see, think, read and hear and I guess Fbook is not enough for some reasons:

- My Status can change several times a day
- If you missed 2 days of facebook, you maybe missed stupid things I post like the fact that “I was looking for 4 Mexicans to create the first Mexican Curling team to compete in the Winter Olympics”
- Most companies have facebook blocked
- People add & add & add friends, so, it is hard for me to share what I want to share and make sure the people I care read it

So, what’s going to be new here? Well, I’ll stop talking about my travels, well., I still travel a lot, pretty much every week (I’ve been on a plane 65 of the last 75 weeks) but now I’ll concentrate my efforts on places, day to day things, news, opinion and Global affairs. And the most important change, it will be 100% in English, why? because I need to improve my writing communication skills before 2011 that I will do my MBA.

Said that, welcome to my new blog, and thanks for reading this :)